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The BoM makes available to the public updates of the Indian Ocean Dipole Index (see below). The index is the difference of area average SSTs between two regions in the Indian Ocean. Identify what is the current (July 2016) phase of IOD.
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Select the Ensemble-mean correlation for 2m temperature for valid for June-July-August and compare with the same map but for precipitation (map below).
What can you say about the skill of the forecast system for both temperature and precipitation (in particular for Australia) ?
Forecast Products
Climagrams are a subset of the seasonal forecast products currently available on the web. Find the corresponding Climagram for the sea surface temperature area average corresponding to the IOD index (discuss within the group what information is displayed in the chart). Compare it with the previous forecast started on July. What can you say about the consistency between consecutive forecasts (July & August) for the target months (Sep. to Nov.) ?
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Verification (To be shown later ...)
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