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The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts every 12h hour between 18 19 and 21 22 October.
The plots below show the analyses of z500 (contours) and t850 (shade) from 18 to 21 22 October.
The event north of Genua was clearly a convective event, and convection initiated over the mountain to the north of Genoa and kept developing over an incredibly long time as seen in the satellite animation below.
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The plots below show observations and forecasts of 24-hour precipitation valid from 20 21 October 06UTC to 21 22 October 06UTC. Two observation plots are included to outline the two different boxes used further down. With the northern maximum (in the Alps) was well captured, also the shortest HRES forecast missed the southern maximum ( close to Gulf of Genua).
. The precipitation maximum in the forecast was rather over sea.
The maximum observed 24-hour precipitation in the outlined box [45.25N, 8.5E, 44.25N, 9.5E] was 502 mm, while the latest forecast (21 Oct 00UTC) had 105 mm. The mean of the 118 observations was 69.6 mm and the forecast mean for the same points 39.9 mm. The area average in the forecast was 29.2 mm.
Obs in box:118 69.6
Fc for obs in box:118 39.9
Fc int/max in box:29.2 105
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for total precipitation valid 20 October.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
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