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The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, HRES - red, ENS control - blue, best track - black), position and intensity on 3 September 00UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 3 September (first plot) to 23 August (last plot). The cyclone was recognised as a tropical storm on 25 August.Three main shifts in the tracks: Majority of members towards Bahamas (26 Aug), easterly path (28 August) and northward turn (31 August)
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The plot below shows the cyclone intensity in terms of central pressure (top), maximum wind speed (middle) and the propagation speed (bottom) for the forecasts from 30 August 00UTC.
3.4 Extended-range forecasts
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