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The plots below show EFI and SOT for 3-day temperatures valid 26-29 June in forecasts from 26 June (first plot) to 20 June (last plot). All forecasts captured the heatwave.
The plots below show EFI and SOT for the maximum temperature on 28 June, the day when the French record was broken.
The ensemble ensemble evolution plot below shows the ENS (blue) and HRES (red dot) 3-day average temperature for a box covering most of France 26-29 June. The signal of the heat appeared quickly between the forecast from 18 June 00UTC to 19 June 00UTC (7 before the start of the verification period). Earlier forecasts had a ensemble median cooler than normal (see Section 3.4).
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