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News
to this page please refer to Document versions.
Further information and advice regarding the upgrade can be obtained from User Support.
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News
- Due to a technical error, the events probabilities for tropical storms, depressions and hurricanes (GRIB parameters 131089, 131090 and 131091 - shortNames pts, ph and ptd) have been encoded and archived at a lower resolution, N320 instead of O640, in Cycle 46r1. The data values were correct. We have fixed this issue as of the run of at 12UTC.
- The cause of strange 2m temperature behaviour in the model climate close to glaciers and ice sheets, which in turn affects EFI and SOT fields as illustrated below, has been diagnosed and we are now working to rectify this. We may choose to re-run the Cycle 46r1 re-forecast(s) for some dates. We will confirm this as soon as we have further details.
Medium-range EFI, 2-metre mean temperature, Cycle 45r1 (OPER) and Cycle 46r1 (E-suite).
- The IFS cycle 46r1 scorecards are now available.
- Cycle 46r1 test data are available in ecCharts and as ENS meteograms.
- Recording and slides of second cycle 46r1 webinar are available.
- The implementation of the new cycle is confirmed for Tuesday . The first operational run using the new cycle will be the 06 UTC analysis and forecast in the Boundary Conditions Optional Programme on followed by the 12 UTC main assimilation and forecast. The monthly forecast extension to the ensemble will be run with the new IFS cycle for the first time the following Thursday .
- We have identified a problem with the parameter "Maximum CAPES in the last 6 hours" (param=228036, shortName=mxcapes6) in Cycle 46r1, affecting the data archived in MARS and available through the dissemination, for HRES, ENS and ENS extended. We are working on a fix for this parameter.
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The planned timetable for the implementation of the cycle 46r1 is as follows:
Date | Event |
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January 2019 | Initial announcement |
26 February and 07 March 2019 | Live-streamed seminar 1 |
15 May 2019 | Availability of test data in dissemination |
15 May and 16 May 2019 | Live-streamed seminar 2 |
11 June 2019 | Expected date of implementation |
The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.
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The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 46r1 will be changed as follows:
GRIB 1 Section 1 Octets | GRIB 2 Section 4 Octets | eccodes key | Component | Model ID | |
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Old | New | ||||
6 | 14 | generatingProcessIdentifier | Atmospheric model | 149 | 150 |
Ocean wave model | 114 | 115 | |||
HRES-SAW ( HRES stand alone ocean wave model) | 214 | 215 |
Sea Surface Temperature
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With the new IFS cycle 46r1, the ecCodes key "localDefinitionNumber" for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analyses at 00Z and 12Z will be changed from 17 to 1, both in dissemination and in MARS. With this change, all SST and Sea Ice fields for the analyses and Forecasts will be harmonised. |
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Extended output have been added in cycle 46r1, including a subset of ocean fields on the atmospheric grid.
paramId | shortName | name | Description | units | GRIB edition | Components | Test data available | Dissemination | ecCharts | Added to the Catalogue |
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Near-surface wind output | ||||||||||
228239 | 200u | 200 metre U wind component | eastward component of the 200m wind. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS | TBC | |||
228240 | 200v | 200 metre V wind component | northward component of the 200m wind. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS | TBC | |||
Wave model parameters | ||||||||||
140098 | weta | Wave induced mean sea level correction | Wave induced mean sea level correction | m | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | |||
140099 | wraf | Ratio of wave angular and frequency width | Ratio of wave angular and frequency width | dimensionless | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | ||
140100 | wnslc | Number of events in freak waves statistics | Number of events in freak waves statistics | dimensionless | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | |||
140101 | utaua | U-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | U-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | |||
140102 | vtaua | V-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | V-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | |||
140103 | utauo | U-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | U-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | |||
140104 | vtauo | V-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | V-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | |||
140105 | wphio | Wave turbulent energy flux into ocean | Wave turbulent energy flux into ocean | W m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | ||
Ocean parameters available at the surface, produced by the NEMO model. | ||||||||||
174098 | sithick | Sea-ice thickness * | Sea-ice thickness | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | TBC | |||
151148 | mld | Mixed layer depth * | Mixed layer depth | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151145 | zos | Sea surface height * | Sea surface height | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151163 | t20d | Depth of 20C isotherm * | Depth of 20C isotherm | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151130 | so | Sea water practical salinity * | Sea water practical salinity | psu | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151164 | tav300 | Average potential temperature in the upper 300m * | Average potential temperature in the upper 300m | degrees C | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151175 | sav300 | Average salinity in the upper 300m * | Average salinity in the upper 300m | psu | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
* All fields are masked on land and lake points. tav300 and sav300 are masked on ocean points with depth < 300m. | ||||||||||
Parameters on Potential Vorticity levels (1.5 and 2 PVU) | ||||||||||
129 | z | Geopotential | This parameter is the gravitational potential energy of a unit mass, at a particular location, relative to mean sea level. | m2 s-2 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | |||
203 | o3 | Ozone mass mixing ratio | This parameter is the mass of ozone per kilogram of air. | kg kg-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | |||
3 | pt | Potential Temperature | Potential Temperature | K | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | |||
54 | pres | Pressure | Pressure | Pa | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | |||
133 | q | Specific humidity | This parameter is the mass of water vapour per kilogram of moist air. | kg kg-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | |||
131 | u | U component of wind | This parameter is the eastward component of the wind. It is the horizontal speed of air moving towards the east, in metres per second. A negative sign thus indicates air movement towards the west. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | |||
132 | v | V component of wind | This parameter is the northward component of the wind. It is the horizontal speed of air moving towards the north, in metres per second. A negative sign thus indicates air movement towards the south. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | |||
* The perturbed forecasts for the ENS only contain the parameters pt, u and v. | ||||||||||
Ensemble probabilities | ||||||||||
131098 | tpg25 | Total precipitation of at least 25 mm | Total precipitation of at least 25 mm | % | 2 | ENS | TBC | |||
131099 | tpg50 | Total precipitation of at least 50 mm | Total precipitation of at least 50 mm | % | 2 | ENS | TBC | |||
131085 | tpg100 | Total precipitation of at least 100 mm | Total precipitation of at least 100 mm | % | 2 | ENS | TBC | |||
131100 | 10fgg10 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s | 10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s | % | 2 | ENS | TBC | |||
133093 | ptsa_gt_1stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 1 standard deviation of the climatology. | % | 2 | ENS | ||||
133094 | ptsa_gt_1p5stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviation of the climatology. See also here. | % | 2 | ENS | ||||
133095 | ptsa_gt_2stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly greater than 2 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 2 standard deviation of the |
climatology. See also here. | % | 2 | ENS | |||||||
133096 | ptsa_lt_1stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly less than -1 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -1 standard deviation of the climatology. See also here. | % | 2 | ENS | ||||
133097 | ptsa_lt_1p5stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviation of the climatology. See also here. | % | 2 | ENS | ||||
133098 | ptsa_lt_2stdev | Probability of 850hPa temperature standardized anomaly less than -2 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -2 standard deviation of the climatology. See also here. | % | 2 | ENS | ||||
Ensemble mean / Ensemble standard deviation | ||||||||||
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10 | ws * | The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second. | The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second. | m s-1 | 1 | ENS | TBC | |||
130 | t * | This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere. | This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere. | K | 1 | ENS | TBC | |||
* These parameters have been added at 250 hPa. | ||||||||||
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) & Shift Of Tails (SOT) | ||||||||||
132045 | wvfi | Water vapour flux index | EFI and SOT for water vapour flux. See also here. | (-1 to 1) | 1 | ENS | TBC | |||
132167 | 2ti | 2 metre temperature index | EFI and SOT for weekly mean temperature (out to week 6). See also here. | (-1 to 1) | 1 | ENS-EXTENDED | TBC | TBC | ||
132228 | tpi | Total precipitation index | EFI and SOT for 1 week total precipitation (out to week 6). See also here. | (-1 to 1) | 1 | ENS-EXTENDED | TBC | TBC |
Changes in Cycle 46r1 data
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With Cycle 46r1, the EFI and SOT become available in the extended-range forecast for two parameters: 7-day mean of 2m temperature and 7-day total precipitation. In contrast to the medium range, the model climate is derived from a set of 3 (rather than 9) re-forecast run dates, centred on the date of the real-time forecast initialisation (all are from 00UTC). The climate sample size is therefore much smaller and comprises 660 values compared to 1980 used in the medium range, but this does make the EFI and SOT consistent with other climate-related products from the extended-range forecasts, such as anomalies and probabilities. See also here.
New climatology for 850hPa Temperature anomaly probabilities
The outdated fixed climatology for computing historical 850hPa temperature anomaly probability parameters 131020 (talm2), 131021 (tag2), 131022 (talm8), 131023 (talm4), 131024 (tag4) and 131025 (tag8) is replaced by a new re-forecast-based climatology. The same climatology is also used to compute the Cycle 46r1 new (standard-deviation-related) 850hPa temperature anomaly probability parameters listed above. The new climatology is much more compatible with the real-time forecast. See also here.
A change to the computation of maximum CAPE and maximum CAPE-shear parameters
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Member State users of the "Simple time-critical jobs" framework can test that their scripts will work with the IFS Cycle 46r1 test data by using the limited ECaccess 'events' set up for this purpose:
1633 | e_ms090 | At this stage, the e-suite step 090 (HRES-BC) has been generated. |
1634 | e_ms144 | At this stage, the e-suite step 144 (ENS-BC) has been generated. |
1635 | e_ms240 | At this stage, the e-suite step 240 (HRES) has been generated. |
1636 | e_ms360 | At this stage, the e-suite step 360 (ENS) has been generated. |
1637 | e_mslaw | At this stage, the e-suite step law (HRES-SAW) has been generated. |
1638 | e_ms1104 | At this stage, the e-suite step 1104 (ENS extended) has been generated. |
1639 | e_msrefc | At this stage, the e-suite step refc (REFORECAST) has been updated. |
For these events, MSJ_EXPVER environment variable is set to 0073 and can be used to specify the IFS Cycle 46r1 test data in any MARS retrievals.
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