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The planned timetable for the implementation of the cycle 46r1 is as follows:
Date | Event |
---|---|
January 2019 | Initial announcement |
26 February and 07 March 2019 | Live-streamed seminar 1 |
May 2019 | Availability of test data in dissemination Live-streamed seminar 2 |
June 2019 | Expected date of implementation |
The timetable represents current expectations and may change in light of actual progress made.
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- Continuous data assimilation. Number of 4D-Var outer loops increased from 3 to 4. Early delivery assimilation window length increased from 6 to 8 hours. Observation cut off time extended.
- Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) increased from 25 members to 50 members.
- Use of the EDA spread to compute the Simplified Extended Kalman Filter (SEKF) soil analysis Jacobians.
- Weakly coupled data assimilation introduced for sea-surface temperature in the tropics only.
- Consistent spatial interpolation of the model to observation locations in trajectories and minimisations. Interpolation in nonlinear trajectories changed from bicubic to bilinear interpolation.
- RRTOV RTTOV upgraded from v12.1 to v12.2.
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The GRIB model identifiers (generating process identification number) for cycle 46r1 will be changed as follows:
GRIB 1 Section 1 Octets | GRIB 2 Section 4 Octets | eccodes key | Component | Model ID | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Old | New | ||||
6 | 14 | generatingProcessIdentifier | Atmospheric model | 149 | 150 |
Ocean wave model | 114 | 115 | |||
HRES-SAW ( HRES stand alone ocean wave model) | 214 | 215 |
New model output parameters
Extended output have been added in cycle 46r1, including a subset of ocean fields on the atmospheric grid.
paramId | shortName | name | Description | units | GRIB edition | Components | Test data available | Dissemination | ecCharts | Added to the Catalogue |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Near-surface wind output | ||||||||||
228239 | 200u | 200 metre U wind component | eastward component of the 200m wind. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
228240 | 200v | 200 metre V wind component | northward component of the 200m wind. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
Wave model parameters | ||||||||||
140098 | weta | Wave induced mean sea level correction | Wave induced mean sea level correction | m | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | ||
140099 | wraf | Ratio of wave angular and frequency width | Ratio of wave angular and frequency width | dimensionless | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | TBC | |
140100 | wnslc | Number of events in freak waves statistics | Number of events in freak waves statistics | dimensionless | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | ||
140101 | utaua | U-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | U-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | ||
140102 | vtaua | V-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | V-component of atmospheric surface momentum flux | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | ||
140103 | utauo | U-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | U-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | ||
140104 | vtauo | V-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | V-component of surface momentum flux into ocean | N m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | ||
140105 | wphio | Wave turbulent energy flux into ocean | Wave turbulent energy flux into ocean | W m-2 | 1 | HRES-WAM / HRES-SAW / ENS-WAM | TBC | TBC | TBC | |
Ocean parameters available at the surface, produced by the NEMO model. | ||||||||||
174098 | sithick | Sea-ice thickness * | Sea-ice thickness | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
151148 | mld | Mixed layer depth * | Mixed layer depth | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151145 | zos | Sea surface height * | Sea surface height | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151163 | t20d | Depth of 20C isotherm * | Depth of 20C isotherm | m | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151130 | so | Sea water practical salinity * | Sea water practical salinity | psu | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151164 | tav300 | Average potential temperature in the upper 300m * | Average potential temperature in the upper 300m | degrees C | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
151175 | sav300 | Average salinity in the upper 300m * | Average salinity in the upper 300m | psu | 1 | HRES / ENS | ||||
* All fields are masked on land and lake points. tav300 and sav300 are masked on ocean points with depth < 300m. | ||||||||||
Parameters on Potential Vorticity levels (+/-1.5 and 2 PVU) | ||||||||||
129 | z | Geopotential | This parameter is the gravitational potential energy of a unit mass, at a particular location, relative to mean sea level. | m2 s-2 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | TBC | ||
203 | o3 | Ozone mass mixing ratio | This parameter is the mass of ozone per kilogram of air. | kg kg-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | TBC | ||
3 | pt | Potential Temperature | Potential Temperature | K | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | TBC | ||
54 | pres | Pressure | Pressure | Pa | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | TBC | ||
133 | q | Specific humidity | This parameter is the mass of water vapour per kilogram of moist air. | kg kg-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | TBC | ||
131 | u | U component of wind | This parameter is the eastward component of the wind. It is the horizontal speed of air moving towards the east, in metres per second. A negative sign thus indicates air movement towards the west. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | TBC | ||
132 | v | V component of wind | This parameter is the northward component of the wind. It is the horizontal speed of air moving towards the north, in metres per second. A negative sign thus indicates air movement towards the south. | m s-1 | 1 | HRES / ENS * | TBC | TBC | ||
* The perturbed forecasts for the ENS only contain the parameters pt, u and v. | ||||||||||
Ensemble probabilities | ||||||||||
131020 | talm2 | Temperature anomaly less than -2 K | Temperature anomaly less than -2 K | dimensionless | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
131021 | tag2 | Temperature anomaly of at least +2 K | Temperature anomaly of at least +2 K | dimensionless | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
131098 | tpg25 | Total precipitation of at least 25 mm | Total precipitation of at least 25 mm | dimensionless | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
131099 | tpg50 | Total precipitation of at least 50 mm | Total precipitation of at least 50 mm | dimensionless | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
131085 | tpg100 | Total precipitation of at least 100 mm | Total precipitation of at least 100 mm | dimensionless | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
131100 | 10fgg10 | 10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s | 10 metre wind gust of at least 10 m/s | dimensionless | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
133093 | ptsa_gt_1stdev | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 1 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS | ||||
133094 | ptsa_gt_1p5stdev | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 1.5 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS | ||||
133095 | ptsa_gt_2stdev | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly greater than 2 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly greater than 2 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS | ||||
133096 | ptsa_lt_1stdev | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -1 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS | ||||
133097 | ptsa_lt_1p5stdev | Probability of temperature standardized anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -1.5 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS | ||||
133098 | ptsa_lt_2stdev | of temperature standardized anomaly less than -2 standard deviation | Probability of temperature anomaly less than -2 standard deviation of the climatology. | dimensionless | 2 | ENS | ||||
Ensemble mean / Ensemble standard deviation | ||||||||||
10 | ws * | The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second. | The speed of horizontal air movement in metres per second. | m s-1 | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
130 | t * | This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere. | This parameter is the temperature in the atmosphere. | K | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC | ||
* These parameters have been added at 250 hPa. | ||||||||||
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) - Shift Of Tail (SOT) | ||||||||||
132045 | wvfi | Water vapour flux index | Water vapour flux index | dimensionless | 1 | ENS | TBC | TBC |
Software
ecCodes
ecCodes version 2.12.0 provides full support for the new model output parameters introduced in IFS Cycle 46r1.
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Peter Lean, Massimo Bonavita, Elías Hólm, Niels Bormann,Tony McNally: "Continuous data assimilation for the IFS" - ECMWF Newsletter 158. Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/158/meteorology/continuous-data-assimilation-ifs
Simon Lang, Elías Hólm, Massimo Bonavita, Yannick Trémolet (JCSDA, US): "A 50-member Ensemble of Data Assimilations" - ECMWF Newsletter 158. Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/158/meteorology/50-member-ensemble-data-assimilations
- ECMWF 's website news item: "Upgrade to boost quality of ocean wave forecasts". Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/upgrade-boost-quality-ocean-wave-forecasts
- Frédéric Vitart, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, Simon Lang, Ivan Tsonevsky, David Richardson, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda: "Use of ERA5 to Initialize Ensemble Re-forecasts" - ECMWF Technical Memorandum nr. 841. Available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/18872-use-era5-initialize-ensemble-re-forecasts
Document versions
Date | Reason for update |
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22.01.2019 | Initial version |
28.03.2019 |
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