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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
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1. Impact
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On 10 august the summer storm Johanne hit south-western Scandinavia with strong winds and rainfall. However, earlier forecasts predicted the storm to hit the Netherlands. |
2. Description of the event
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The series of plots below show analysis of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation (top) and Z500 and T850 (bottom) from 9 Aug 00z to 10 Aug 12z.
The plot below shows the maximum wind gusts in the Netherlands on 9 August.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
The plot below show the increment for the analysis 9 August 12UTC, which decreased the magnitude of the cyclone.
3.2 HRES
The plot below show observed 24-hour wind gusts (first plot) valid for 10 August and HRES forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts (shade) and MSLP valid 10 August 12UTC (contour). The forecast from 8 August 12UTC gave much strong winds, and the next set of plots focus on 9 August.
The plot below show observed 24-hour wind gusts (first plot) valid for 9 August 12UTC to 10 August 12UTC and HRES forecasts for 24-hour maximum wind gusts (shade) and MSLP valid 10 August 00UTC (contour).
3.3 ENS
The plots below shows EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 10 August.
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- False alarm for the windstorm to hit the Netherlands.
- Big jump in signal from 6 to 7 August
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