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- maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours
- maximum CAPE-shear in the last 6 hours.
These new parameters are derived from hourly model output and they will be tested in replacing current CAPE and CAPE-shear the EFI. An example that compares these new model outputs to the instantaneous CAPE and CAPE-shear for this case of severe convection are shown below.
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ENS T+114h Probability of lightning density above 0.1 flashes.100km-2.h-1 (left) and above 2 flashes.100km-2.h-1 (right).
Probabilities of the new maximum CAPE parameter to be above 1000 J/kg highlights the affected area in the medium range whilst in the short-range forecasts that area stands out.
Probability of maximum CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg at T+114h (left) and T+18h (right).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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